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Greatest Mistake
spooky6
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Posted: Friday, February 10, 2006 - 03:15 PM UTC

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While I feel it was a blunder to attack the USSR before finishing off the UK I also don't think it was possible to invade the UK. I go along with the old line by a Britsh Admiral of the Napoleonic period. "I don't say they can't come, I just say they can't come by sea."



Quite true, Rodger. I didn't mean that the failure to invade the UK was a mistake. Just the failure to deal with the UK. Forcing the UK to accept terms would have been the way to go.


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I don't agree that North Africa was unavoidable. The Germans didn't have any presence in Tunisia, Libya, or Egypt until they went there to pull Italian chestnuts out of the fire. If they WERE to go into those areas they should have done so with enough forces to do the job, not the penny packets like they did with Rommel.



I agree with the last part of that, yes, they should have used more force. But I still maintain that North Africa was vital to the defence of the Med and thereby France and Italy. If Italy had been left to fight alone, she well might have sued for peace with the Allies and taken a neutral stance like Spain. Or at worst (for Germany) a humiliation of Italy in North Africa might have triggered an overthrow of Mussolini by the armed forces. All very speculative, I know, but just as Egypt is currently vital to NATO and the west if it is to dominate the Med, so was North Africa at the time.It was Europe's left flank (depending on viewpoint!), just as the north Atlantic was the right flank.


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German paratroopers would have been a non-factor in a cross channel invasion. The Germans suffered between 6,400 (German admitted) and 16,500 (everyone else's numbers) causalties during the invasion of Crete. That is out of 22,750 troops. After Crete, the Germans never jumped again enmass.



The use of paras in Crete was successful (though terrible in casualties, I agree). But maybe that was a wrong example. I think Belgium would have been a better one. It all hinged on air superiority. We might not have seen mass drops, but small airborne sappers and commando units that would have taken bridges and airfields and opened the way for reinforcements, both beach-landed and air-landed. But as I said, terms would have been better than invasion.


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The Allied landings at Anzio.Operation Market Garden



Again, tactical errors and bad generalship that delayed the conclusion, but had no real effect on the final result.
Tigercat
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Posted: Friday, February 10, 2006 - 11:06 PM UTC

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The use of paras in Crete was successful (though terrible in casualties, I agree). But maybe that was a wrong example. I think Belgium would have been a better one. It all hinged on air superiority. We might not have seen mass drops, but small airborne sappers and commando units that would have taken bridges and airfields and opened the way for reinforcements, both beach-landed and air-landed. But as I said, terms would have been better than invasion.



I disagree Crete is a better example as it is an Island. The German army was eventually able to relieve the airborne forces in Belgium by land. Though the German airborne forces were successful in Crete it was due to tactical errors by British and Commonwealth forces. The Royal Navy despite operating with no air support prevented the German naval invasion.

David
jRatz
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Posted: Saturday, February 11, 2006 - 08:08 AM UTC

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I don't agree that North Africa was unavoidable. The Germans didn't have any presence in Tunisia, Libya, or Egypt until they went there to pull Italian chestnuts out of the fire. If they WERE to go into those areas they should have done so with enough forces to do the job, not the penny packets like they did with Rommel.



I agree with the last part of that, yes, they should have used more force. But I still maintain that North Africa was vital to the defence of the Med and thereby France and Italy. If Italy had been left to fight alone, she well might have sued for peace with the Allies and taken a neutral stance like Spain. Or at worst (for Germany) a humiliation of Italy in North Africa might have triggered an overthrow of Mussolini by the armed forces. All very speculative, I know, but just as Egypt is currently vital to NATO and the west if it is to dominate the Med, so was North Africa at the time.It was Europe's left flank (depending on viewpoint!), just as the north Atlantic was the right flank.



Let's review Italy's contribution to the war and then figure out whether Germany was better off with or without her. With an 8:1 superiority in N.Africa, they loose & need the Germans to bail 'em out. So to make up for that, they go into Greece & have to be bailed out again.

Italy was less of a danger out of the war -- in the war they disrupted time tables, sucked off forces necessary elsewhere, and generally contributed nothing but opportunity for, in particular, the British to add to their military, naval, and aviation history ...

The terrain in N.Italy, Greece & the Balkans meant that the only "soft underbelly" was along the coast of France. And that belonged to Germany. From there they could control (or at least disrupt) the entrance to the Med from the Atlantic and minimize the impact of Allied forces in the Med ... There was nothing in N.Africa except a bumbling ally ...

John
spooky6
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Posted: Saturday, February 11, 2006 - 09:14 AM UTC

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I disagree Crete is a better example as it is an Island. The German army was eventually able to relieve the airborne forces in Belgium by land. Though the German airborne forces were successful in Crete it was due to tactical errors by British and Commonwealth forces. The Royal Navy despite operating with no air support prevented the German naval invasion.



I know we're getting a wee bit with this, but it's interesting so I'll stay with it. Belgium is a better example due to its similarity in terrain to souteastern England. Crete was a dry rocky and partly mountainous isolated island. The UK, while an island, can't be compared to Crete. In the latter, there was no possibility of sustained reinforcement for either side. In Belgium there was, and there would have been in England, given that German paras would have been used only in support of massive landings. Without an amphibious landing capability of course an invasion would have been suicide.

I still maintain that an invasion would have been a mistake, but a landing could have been successful given the right set of circumstances. The problem is that the fighting might have dragged on as the Germans moved on towards Wales and Scotland, and therefore would have drained German resources.


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Let's review Italy's contribution to the war and then figure out whether Germany was better off with or without her. With an 8:1 superiority in N.Africa, they loose & need the Germans to bail 'em out. So to make up for that, they go into Greece & have to be bailed out again.

Italy was less of a danger out of the war -- in the war they disrupted time tables, sucked off forces necessary elsewhere, and generally contributed nothing but opportunity for, in particular, the British to add to their military, naval, and aviation history ...



Arguable, and not strictly true when you consider the actual Allied casualties inflicted by Italian troops. Also, you're looking at it in a purely military sense, and not at the policies from which the war sprang. Hitler, Franco, and Mussolini were quite tight in the early years and bound by their common politics, and therefore Germany's military was honour-bound to be involved in its allies' battles.


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The terrain in N.Italy, Greece & the Balkans meant that the only "soft underbelly" was along the coast of France. And that belonged to Germany. From there they could control (or at least disrupt) the entrance to the Med from the Atlantic and minimize the impact of Allied forces in the Med ... There was nothing in N.Africa except a bumbling ally ...



Certainly not. A crowded and easily compartmentalized sea like the Med could not (and cannot) be dominated from France alone. In fact, it could not be controlled from any one coast. If north Africa had been abandoned to the Allies it would have been simple for them to bottle up the Germans in the French corner of the Med and dominate the rest of it. Italy became such a difficult obstacle because it was defended. If Italy had sought terms with the Allies following a defeat in Africa and allowed them passage, we could have seen a rapid advance.

Greece, too, would then have become an easier job once Italy was out of the plot. In fact, all of the Balkans and the Eastern Med would have become an Allied pond. Italy was (and is) key to dominating the Med. Not France. Therefore, no North Africa meant no Italy. No Italy meant no Med. No Med meant no left flank.
Hohenstaufen
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Posted: Saturday, February 11, 2006 - 03:16 PM UTC
I think I'd have to go for the failure to neutralise the UK in 1940 as the prime blunder.
If the BEF had been annhilated at Dunkirk, it would have been much easier for the Germans to invade Southern England. Even if the defences had been built, there would have been no one to man them. The BEF included Empire troops & Territorials, virtually all the modern equipment in the British Army, & virtually all it's tanks. The Home forces would have been denuded of troops. The LDV did not reach any effectiveness until nearly a year later. In fact, the UK may have had to sue for peace in the Summer of 1940, had the BEF been destroyed (Churchill's bellicose view was by no means universal in the British government, e.g. Halifax).
The Battle of Britain was seriously mishandled by Goering, his choice to switch the bombing from RAF airfields just as he was on the verge of forcing the RAF to abandon the area within range of Northern France snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. With air superiority in the South of England, any attempt by the Fleet to intervene would have been subject to uninterrupted attack by the Luftwaffe, with results similar to the loss of the Prince of Wales & Repulse in South East Asia, or Pearl Harbor.
Conversely, the German OKW had not made any serious attempt to plan for Sealion; being a land based nation, Germany was not really used to amphibious operations, the Channel crossing plan was based on an enlarged river crossing. But against virtually no opposition, the rag-tag fleet of converted barges might have worked.
With the UK out of the war, Germany would have been free to turn East. The British interference in the Mediterranean, in Greece & Crete would not have happened. British forces in North Africa would have "withered on the vine" without the support of the home country. With German stiffening, the Italians may well have captured Egypt & the Suez Canal. This would also have put them close to Arabian oil, which would have made them independant of the Russian oilfields.
Without Britain sitting on his shoulder, Hitler would have been free to deploy all his forces in the East; Barbarossa might have started months earlier, allowing the drive on Moscow to succeed. With Moscow & possibly Leningrad captured, the German line would be shortened, & the Russian ability to move forces up & down the front seriously curtailed. Russian Communism was essentially centralist, & the removal of both likely seats of government would have made the USSR ungovernable for Stalin.
With a more enlightened approach to the Ukrainians & White Russians, Hitler would have been able to rely on this extra manpower to take on the rump of Russia.
As for the US getting involved if Britain had been invaded, I can't see this happening. The US ambassador in London, Joseph Kennedy, sent gloomy reports of Britains likely survival for months in 1940. But this did not precipitate American involvement, rather the opposite. US public opinion was very much against getting embroiled in another European war, with no remaining allies in Europe, it is difficult to see the US taking this on unaided. It should be remembered that Lend-Lease was intended to aid allies fighting in American spheres of interest, avoiding American involvement. No allies, no Lend-Lease.
If we assume Pearl Harbor to be inevitable, since it was precipitated by trade restrictions on Japan, the American effort would have been concentrated in the Pacific. Having defeated Japan (the outcome could never be seriously in doubt), would the US then have been in any mood to turn to new endeavours in Europe? I don't think so. More likely would be some sort of rapprochment with Hitler.
Halfyank
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Posted: Saturday, February 11, 2006 - 08:31 PM UTC

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With air superiority in the South of England, any attempt by the Fleet to intervene would have been subject to uninterrupted attack by the Luftwaffe, with results similar to the loss of the Prince of Wales & Repulse in South East Asia, or Pearl Harbor.



I'd like to respond to just this one small part of your excellent post. In the case of a cross channel invasion I believe that Crete and Dunkirk would have been a much better examples of what would have happened than Force Z and Pearl Harbor. Even if the Luftwaffe managed to drive the RAF to air bases outside range from France as soon as the RAF got word of an invasion convoy they would have coming swarming right back. Crete and Dunkirk both showed how, even with limited or no air support, the RN was quite capable of performing it's mission, even if they took huge losses. Every warship in the RN would come rushing to the channel to stop the invasion. The Germans proved singularly inept at stopping the RN by air attacks alone. With their home at stake the men of the RN would have gone to superhuman lengths to stop the invasion.

As you yourself said the Germans were treating the channel as just a very large river crossing. Can you imagine the carnage that would result if British fleet units got in amongst the slow, over loaded, and weekly armed transports and barges?

Realistically I don't believe Sea Lion had a prayer. My feeling is the only way to drive Great Britain out of the war in 1940, other than as has been said destroying the BEF while in France, was a two pronged campaign. Concentrate on the u-boat campaign to cut off Britain from supplies, and using the Luftwaffe to destroy the RAF that was in range, then any factories and cities that would have been left undefended. I feel that after six months or so like this there would have been a chance of Britain being forced to ask for terms.

ShermiesRule
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Posted: Saturday, February 11, 2006 - 09:03 PM UTC
If Germany had knocked out Britain the Allies would have ha no bases to attack Europe. The bombing campaign. The day and night bombing of German industry was a key ingedient to wearing down the German war machine. Where would those bombers be stationed if not England? England was the staging area for DDay. Of course the participation and contribution of English troops also was key.
spooky6
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Posted: Sunday, February 12, 2006 - 12:01 PM UTC

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The day and night bombing of German industry was a key ingedient to wearing down the German war machine. Where would those bombers be stationed if not England?



In the Soviet Union of course.

I think even if Britain had fallen or accepted terms, there would have still been some sort of British resistance and even an alternate government in exile, as there was in the Netherlands and France. And that would have been sufficient for the US to become increasingly involved, along with the Commonwealth. Stalin, faced with the full might of Germany and Italy would have engineered an agreement with Roosevelt that would have allowed US troops into the USSR.

Even if the US had resisted Free British, French and Commonwealth pressure and stayed out of war with Germany, it would have still had to eventually deal with a German-occupied Siberia uncomfortably close to Alaska and Canada. The fighting between Japan, the US and Australia, particularly in China and the northern Pacific would eventually have dragged Germany in.
Halfyank
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Posted: Sunday, February 12, 2006 - 08:14 PM UTC

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I think even if Britain had fallen or accepted terms, there would have still been some sort of British resistance and even an alternate government in exile, as there was in the Netherlands and France. And that would have been sufficient for the US to become increasingly involved, along with the Commonwealth. Stalin, faced with the full might of Germany and Italy would have engineered an agreement with Roosevelt that would have allowed US troops into the USSR.

Even if the US had resisted Free British, French and Commonwealth pressure and stayed out of war with Germany, it would have still had to eventually deal with a German-occupied Siberia uncomfortably close to Alaska and Canada. The fighting between Japan, the US and Australia, particularly in China and the northern Pacific would eventually have dragged Germany in.



I agree that if Great Britain had fallen the government, along with the fleet, with any RAF aircraft they could ferry, and as much of the treasury they could carry, would move to Canada, probably Halifax. There they would cetainly carry on the fight. I'm not sure this would be the case if they had accepted some kind of terms. There is no situation I can imagine where Great Britain would fight on Germany's side, but they probably would have become nuetral.

America was destined to be in WWII. I can't concieve them sitting out the entire war. I'm not sure what it would have taken to get the U.S. in the war against Germany, even if the Pearl Harbor attack had taken place, but I'm sure somethign would have triggered it. I still maintain that the biggest blunder was Hitler declaring war on the U.S, which was the greatest Christmas present Churchill ever received. Hitler was NOT compelled to declare war, and there was really little to gain by doing so.
AJLaFleche
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Posted: Sunday, February 12, 2006 - 08:32 PM UTC

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The Holocaust - ...galvanized a world against the Nazis.




Actually, it didn't. At least not durng the war to any great degree. Even when the rest of the world was learning of this,. it was buried in the newspapers.There were no efforts to stop the actions and liberation of the camps only happened as the troops were overrunning the rest of the landscape. Then there was the case of the ship filled with Jewish refugees that was turned away from numerous ports until it was forced to returned to occupied territory. There were no attempts to disable the railways leading to the camps, though this was discussed and dismissed.

We have to remember, anti-Semitism was much more prevalent back them and many Americans, at least, would have had more sympathy for a German than a Jew.
spooky6
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Posted: Monday, February 13, 2006 - 03:10 PM UTC

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We have to remember, anti-Semitism was much more prevalent back them and many Americans, at least, would have had more sympathy for a German than a Jew.



Absolutely correct. Churchill & Roosevelt were both strong believers in genetic superiority and inferiority amongst humans. A trend of thought initiated and supported by the majority of the scientific community in the late '20s and into the '30s. Nazi idealogy wasn't new or radical, just a taking of popular thinking to its logical conclusion.