I am surprised nobody has mentioned this topic. Probably the worst economic disaster I have witnessed. I am only 37, so I remember the recession of 81-82, the early 90s and the inflation of the late 70s ( I remember this quite well, because 1/72 Airfix kits went from 50 cents to nearly $3.00 which killed the mass market for models). Although, I am to some extent immune from the crises, I have already cut back on my spending on models (insert crying icon here) - that's how nervous I am.

I really feel sorry for the people who were contemplating on retiring soon and devoting some time to modelling. You guys have probably seen your retirement funds diminish with each day.

I am wondering have your spending habits on models changed? Are you cutting back like me? How are you coping? No doubt we will see some "fire sales" come in the following months as someone like me who has worked in the hobby industry knows - hobbies are the first to be sacrificed in a recession, it can literally just die instantly.

Sorry for sounding pessimistic, but I think this recession/depression? is really going to be a shocker.

I think someone did bring this up before on Armorama. But hell yeah, this economy is wreaking havoc on the hobby industry. The ONLY remaining hobby store in Southern New Jersey closed its doors back in March. He sold lots of stuff too. Trains, RC models, aircraft, cars, 1/35 military stuff, etc. Me personally, Im just building from my stash. Im not spending spit. No ones job is safe, and its wise to hold on to your money as best as you can in case of some financial disaster. IMHO, its gonna be well into 2009 before the economy "starts" to turn around. THe retailers are crying too. They already have Christmas trees and decorations on the shelf and we havent even had Halloween yet! Theyre like a month early. I heard they were doing this to try and promote people to start spending early.

Actually, this is third incarnation of this topic, but one which obviously affects people.
I'm not affected by this at all. At least for now. Maybe in twenty years I'll be singing a different tune, as my retirement investments have lost close to 40% of their value. All except (stomp, stomp) the G Fund in my TSP.
In talking with friends, the most painful result of the "crisis" has been the high cost of gasoline, (already down to $2.459 and falling) and consumer goods, which are falling as well, as a result of the cheaper gasoline. But those same folks have little if anything invested and show little anxiety over the market.
I am fortunate in that my employers pay my gas costs, and a per diem rate.
As for the market, there are few reasons to panic. Everything is cyclical. Long term investments have admittedly tanked for the time being. But for every dollar lost, there is a dollar gained by someone else. Want to know why Warren Buffet says stay in the market? Because he's one of those gaining. Don't believe the media hype about billionaire losses. Not all of them are. When the market swings 500-700 points in a DAY, there's money to be made in the short term. If you want to know what Buffet is doing, Berkshire Hathaway is the site to visit. Seems like a fraction of the time we spend Googling things might be better spend elsewhere.
Let the long term investments ride. It'll even out. But for the short term, if you're smart, you won't have to go begging for kits. Or Chopper parts, or anything else for that matter.
This guy certainly isn't:

You might try Googling the image, but I'm fairly certain you won't find it.

At any rate, I may eat these words when I'm 65, but I won't be eating canned dog food.
If we just built the kits we have stashed right now, we can all plan for a better future, and act accordingly.

Back in the 90's when Chris Dodd and Barney Frank ignored all the warnings and pushed SO HARD to loosen Lending Rules, to gain the favor (votes) of the less fortunate, I began padding myself against the calamity that would surely result; paying off everything but our house and not taking on ANY additional credit.

Things were slim while doing so, but had I not, the politically inspired economic events of the last two years would have wiped us out! MANY others who THINK FOR THEMSELVES done the same thing and are wethering the storm, but many also blindly followed the advise/encouragement of the politicians, and are now almost or completely screwed.

I've bought and built more models this year than the last 5 put together, and have been able to take two fairly decent vacations as well. You know, helping the economy.

Take care,
Frank

I used to buy every new kit I was interested in. This year we have had to tighten our belts and I am more discretionary with my kit purchases. I think the economy is impacting the entire retail side of our hobby, especially the LHS. However, my wife and kids like my hobby because it keeps me home and is comaparatively inexpensive. For the amount of enjoyable time it gives me it is a great value compared to golf, hunting, or vintage autos. For a while there I was putting my model money in my gas tank, but gas prices have dropped and I can swing a kit when I want, or stop by the LHS for paint and glue. Of course, if I finish 6 kits a year, I can build out of my stash and survive a 30 year depression without buying a kit! Building models is a lot cheaper than going out, so a recession/depression might actually be good for this hobby.
I'm from Connecticut and we have 2 Native American casinos in our state that have always been rediculously successful. Both have just reported their worst quarters ever and laid off workers. BUT 4 of us went this past Saturday up to New Hampshire for Granitecon (a GREAT show by the way) and they had their best turnout in their 16 years of operation. We talked about this for some time and agreed that people are staying home and building models they already have instead of driving all around, spending money on gas and attractions, or going to the casinos. Glue and paint are cheap and the economy might actually be helping the hobby, but maybe not the hobby shop.

Not really. I have curbed my kit purchases anyway since I have more kits than I could possibly build for the rest my days. I do, however, count my pennies and am a bit frugal in other expenditures as a result of all this mess.

My employment is reasonably safe in a municipal government.

hello all,
i am not having any trouble with this recession.i own my house and vehicles.we have enough food stored for 5 years,and this summer i put in solar panels and a windmill for power so i am off the grid.the only expense's i have is telephone/Internet and satellite T.V.
as for buying kits and other modeling items,i have a 10 year calender schedule for building models and i have what i need for it except for paint. unless i sign up for a campaign and need to buy a kit,i have no worries about being bored being as slow as i am building my kits.
the biggest thing is the prices for kits.they have risen 40%-90% in the last year.most of that is because of the price of oil going up.with oil going down,i do wonder if the prices will drop? i doubt it,but it would be nice.
cheers,
Bruce

I don't see it. Hobby shop I went to last week is doing very good business. I spent close to $900 last weekend between 2 stores. My local area is growing. This "economic crisis" is a geographical issue and doesn't affect everyone. Everyday commodities have gone up, but when hasn't it? Until gas hits the $8 dollar mark, I still consider it affordable otherwise. Coming from a tiny island where everything was through the roof prices, I consider how lucky I am to get stuff for the prices they are now.

You bet It has affect me! Lost close to 10 grand so far. Not too mention trying to keep two kids in college! At least gas has gone down...a little. I have definately had to curb the spending for my hobbies. I have bought some paint and 2 kits that were going for 1990 prices. I have had to practicly give up shooting at the rifle range, the cost of ammunition has gone completely through the roof. Looks like I my have to put off retiring from the military for a few more years......I was really looking forward to finally growing some roots!

Here Here! You want to see it get MUCH worse then make sure a Democrat president gets elected so there will be a Dem executive with a Dem Senate and house. Just look at some of the stuff Pelosi has in the works to get shoved up our you know whats.
This country has always been better when one party runs the executive branch and the other rules the house. Don't get me wrong. I think Bush was a disaster also when the GOP ran both sides of the government so this isn't a partisan rant. I dislike all politicians equally.

C.

Mine is a short reply.

Yes I have cut back a bunch on buying.,reason I have more then enough to last me 5 lifetimes.
Plus no pay raises this year.

Still as said economy should bounce back when is really not known.

I don't think anybody could put a set date on it.

Just like it crashed so fast.

My opinion.

No real effect to this point...True, I've lost some money in my 401(k), but I'm still at least 8 years away from retirement, so there is time to recoup those losses (I hope!).

As far as discretionary income, the increase in gas costs affected me to a slight degree, but they have started to trend down. Now at $2.59/gallon locally, so I am not as careful about combining trips as I had been.

I will admit that I didn't make the trip to AMPS Nationals in Indiana, but that was due to a $4000 repair bill on my truck. I know...I need to prioritize better. It was the first AMPS Nationals that I've ever missed. I couldn't make AMPS East due to family obligations.

On a brighter note, I have purchased three new revolvers this calendar year and my son and I have sent c.5000 rounds downrange since early spring. That has necessitated a rather large expenditure in terms of reloading supplies. As my supply of bullets, primers and gun powder is being consumed at a frightening rate, it is apparent that another large expenditure is due before the end of winter, so that a reasonable supply of ammunition is on hand to start the spring shooting season.
We have been on two small game hunts so far this Fall, with several more planned, plus a bear hunt and a deer hunt.
Since hunting and shooting are my primary hobby, I don't usually spend much time modelling until after the Fall hunting seasons. To be truthful, I haven't spent any time at the modelling bench since about early March. I have bought a couple of reference books, but that about covers my modelling purchases for this year.

As far as business prospects go, my employer continues to grow, both in volume of sales and profitability. New acquisitions and expansion projects are ongoing and they are adding staff. It would appear that my employment status is quite secure. Food products seem to be relatively recession proof...knock on wood.

Next April will see me at Havre de Grace, Md. for AMPS Nationals with plenty of cash to spend. No vendor table will be safe.

I don't normally get involved with these sort of discussions, but what the heck...

Economic Meltdown? It's not that bad to call it a meltdown. If your inflation was over 1000% such as in Zimbabwe, then it would be a meltdown. Markets go through cycles, this is what it's doing at the moment.

I've never been one to hoard a huge stash, or buy a great many models. The reason being that until 2 months ago I lived in a 3rd world country with a wildly fluctuating currency. On a good day we'd be looking at 6 or 7 South African Rands to 1 USD, on a bad day we'd be looking at anywhere between 8 and 10. How would we tell a bad from good? We'd wait to see which politian opened his/her mouth about a contensious issue such as HIV not causing AIDS, or which politian had been acquitted for fraud and corruption because his supporters threatened to raze the country while he sings about his AK...

I digress though, basically what I'm saying is that I lived in a country with a very high cost of living, partly because of the strong green back, partly because everything was imported.

I now live in a 1st world country, where although the cost of living is still relatively high, it has a strong economy and currency. In truth my hobby spending is about to increase, simply because my inter-continental move has increase my own quality of life. I budget a certain amount for my hobbies every month (my missus agreed to the figure), and I believe that through simply keeping my head about it I can "live" comfortably within my hobby budget.

With all due respect, I've lived on the otherside... you guys don't know how good you've got it.

Rudi

p.s. I had reservations about making this post... but in for a penny, in for a pound...

well the gun thing is covered bought 5 full cases of 45apc 2 years ago the gas for the atv's got a little out of hand . Still buying a few kits and a bunch of used stuff,but like most of us I have tens years worth of kits on hand. I might have to go to the dollar store for some glue here next week. all ready retired on a fixed income,so all we did was cut down on car and truck use. Got fixed Mortgages on both houses,as soon as I rent the other one again we will be fine (never saw land that I did not like) unlike paper it will always go up.
rp mcmillen
USAR INF

Well one thing I can gather from this thread is that modellers are smarter than your average bears. They seem to be weathering the storm for the moment, but don't figure it will be just another cycle and several years later it will be fine.
The reliance of corporate America to derive profit from more speculate and dubious forms of investment will only increase in the future. There will be "talk" of "regulation" and so forth, but nothing won't change. I recommend that next time you make a modest profit from stocks, property, etc, get out while you can, because next time your "secure" job may not be so secure (also build up your stash).

I'm not hurting to bad from the meltdown. Of course the last kit I bought was around the year 2000. It's still the only kit in my stash. I do my own figures from what others my consider trash, but it works for me and when all is said and done that's all that matters.

Well the thing I notice is that three others include ammo prices in their concerns. Now my modest supply (app. 500 rds) of 5.56 pales in comparison to some of my buddies, I figure if the apocolypse does indeed come, the first few bodies in my front yard ought to discourage anyone else.

Yes, its affected me, a loss in the 401K but Ive got about 9 years till retirement, gives me time to recoup my loses., I hope. Curbed my spending, but thats due to the slow down at work and the possibility the plant could close/ 40 percent already laid off in last 9 months. Hope for the best/planning for the worst. milvehfan

My same reply from the last time this topic came up, a couple weeks ago. Still feel the same way.

Good reply Gino.
But you do have Uncle Sugar to fall back upon.
Housing and such,won't let you starve or nothing.
At least we hope not. .
To the other ones with Guns I reload and have ammo and guns to start my own War.
So as 18Bravo said the bodies on the lawn will keep the rest off the homestead.
Plus will get together and form the Family Compound so all protected.
Almost sounds like a movie.
Be good folks as it will change has to.
Bad thing of what I heard on the news is the SOB's in charge of Gas production are going to lower production as demand is lower so it will go back up again.Greed has a way of rearing it's head

It has affected me some. The gas certainly hurt because I have a 24.8 mi. commute each way to work. It has also hurt because I work in retail sales and get paid on commission. However, my state has weathered the crisis better than most so things are not as bad as some. I am having to be a little more choosy about which kits I get and what I pay for them.

Hi all -

I'm taking a hit in my 401k but not as bad as some. Back when the Dow hit 1400 and everbody started talking about a "new golden age", I pulled a bunch out of equities and put them in government bonds. Since I'm retiring at the end of this year, I have to be careful but I'm not gonna lack for anything. I took Warren Buffet's advice and put some back in to a solid mutual fund last week. It may take awhile but my average buying price for that fund is way low now.

I havn't been buying models for some time now. My stash is way too big.

And my reply from a few weeks ago stands as well. Not every one losing their house is an idiot. Thankfully I'm in a position that I don't have to worry. Some people took bad advice, some took the best advice at the time, some took variable rate mortgages, interest only loans, etc... The decisions donn't make them idiots, although I have to raise my eyebrows at those who say that they are their own financial because they know best, when in reality they're not willing to pony up for expert advice. Some quite folks were indeed victims of mortgage companies improperly qualifying people for loans. Our mortgage company in Dallas was one such company. Some of those folks are just now finishing up their jail time. Others were simply deported.
As for complaining about the stock market going south, if you think that makes me an idiot, so be it. I don't think anyone investing in the market is necessarily "making a bad decision." Perhaps if you're not well diversified, you're not making the wisest decisions. On the other hand, there was once a man from Dallas who invested everything he had, $1000, in IBM, and look at him now. Surely his name is familiar to most of us...
Our very economic system depends upon those willing to take a chance with their capital. Hence the term "capitalism." You take the profits when they come your way, and you take the losses as well.

I have said I am not YET affected by the "crisis," however...
I can complain about it if I want (who wouldn't, after seeing the losses) because I'm one of the ones investing in this country's future, and my own. However, the fact is I don't complain too loudly because with a diverse portfolio, the losses on one side are mitigated by the gains on the other. Funny that no one complains when they're making the money.
A sad story:
On the rare occasions when I would visit a FOB (Since I didn't live on one) I would find my name on the same SDP sign in sheet from the previous six or eight weeks - because hardly anyone was taking advanage of it! $10,000 at a guaranteed 10% interest rate for one year, tax free! And very few people were signed up. They are the ones who should be complaining. I don't toss about the term idiot at a whim, but d@mn!

Luckyblunder, I am heartened to see I am not the only one taking Mr. Buffet's advice.

I'll second that Rob. Everytime I go on Ameritrade and look at my stock, all I can do is sigh. Luckily my investments in the Market were small and my losses about the same if not more. Hell, it was all make believe money anyhow...or so they say. Having a diversified portfolio helps. Thank god for Mutual funds, TSPs a Trust Fund,and an asian mother who I once thought was nuts for telling me to save over and over as a child. She knew something I didnt.

I am not doing too bad. I buy as needed and don't really buy a kit until I'm ready for it.

As for discussion:
I just recently began making a living where the investment question was brought up. I once heard an economist point out the housing bubble and mentioned that the thing would crash in some no so distant future (this was around 2002). I have always kept this in mind and always decided that it would be best to really learn the market and how to invest so that I would have control over my investment portfolio. Currently, I am busy studying for certification exams and working a heavy load. The opportunity has not come around, but I will learn the subject and invest in the market in some way. As some journalist on the news mentioned the other night, "The money is going somewhere.....you just have to find out where its going."

Housing: I am absolutely petrified of anybody who will lie on a document that must be signed which includes the following statement: "I have filled out the respective sections truthfully. Any misrepresentation may end in prosecution, sentencing, death, hanging, etc."
We were offered a mortgage claiming that my wife and I were pulling in around $8000 a month at the time when we were bringing in around $2500. What did the broker tell me when I asked about the incorrect statement: "Dont worry, they wont check. And besides, the market is doing great and you can sell it in 2 or 3 years for a profit and buy a bigger home."

Let's just say that those who purchased a home under the same premise was well aware of what was going on and are playing the 10 year old who ate the cookies. I have sat by and watched my neighborhood increase in price over 400% (I did the math) since the early 21st century.

On the political talk mentioned prior: My personal opinion is to get rid of both parties. They are a cancer.